The best damn Oscar predictions around: 2013 edition
Feb 22 // Matthew Razak @MatthewRazak
Last year we made the bold statement that our Oscar predictions were the best ever. Were we 100 percent right? No. But that doesn't mean we're going to back down from outlandish claims about our incredible ability to predict who is going to win. In fact we were actually never wrong. It was the academy that was making the mistakes!
So we're back this year once again with our rundown of all of the Oscar predictions. But we don't just stop with who is going to win. It's important to note that just because something is going to win doesn't mean it should win and that's why we lay out which movies should be the winners even if they aren't going to be. Then we go ahead and try to make ourselves angry by coming up with all the possible outcomes that will really piss us off.
Chairs were thrown through windows by the time we stopped writing this thing.
What's Going to Win: Argo
Thanks to that Golden Globe win for Best Picture and Best Director along with a slew of other award nabs Argo has gone from somewhat hopeful to big front runner. It's great Oscar fodder since it's based on a true story, political and actually really good. Plus, Ben Affleck's return to glory is one of those Hollywood stories that Hollywood people really like. There's also the fact that he somehow didn't get nominated for best director so Argo should be raking in some pity votes as well.
What Should Win: Les Misérables
It's actually a real tough year to pick one movie above all the rest. Many years you can kind of point to one that really deserves it for a plethora of reasons, but this year it's really hard to choose because there's so many different flavors to select from and we're a bunch of different people. That being said a film the likes of Les Misérables only comes along once in a blue moon. Daringly directed (sometimes to a fault) the movie is a powerhouse and should be recognized for pushing boundries.
More Chairs will be Thrown Through Windows If: Skyfall doesn't get a surprise nomination for that tenth open spot. It's ridiculous it wasn't nominated simply because it's a James Bond film.
Who's Going to Win: Stephen Spielberg (Lincoln)
You have to give Stephen Spielberg an Academy Award every so often. It's just one of those things that has to happen. Was Lincoln his best effort ever? Not really, but the man is due an award and it definitely wasn't bad. Plus, it's not going to win best picture so that means people will be giving him the vote to make up for it.
Who Should Win: Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Great directors can take truly inacuous things at turn them into wonder. That's what Benh Zeitlin did with Beasts of the Southern Wild. Not only did he cull an amazing performance out of a child actor, but he created a film that probably couldn't have been made by anyone else. Having your own directorial stamp and that stamp being as good as Zeitlin's is well deserving of an Oscar.
More Chairs will be Thrown Through Windows If: David O. Russel wins. What the hell is he doing on this list? Silver Lining Playbook was a competently directed film with great stars. Competence doesn't get you Academy Award nominations.
Who's Going to Win: Daniel-Day Lewis (Lincoln)
For one thing Daniel-Day Lewis always wins. For another he's absolutely amazing in Lincoln. For a third... no wait, I don't need a third. He's Daniel-Day Lewis, winning Academy Awards is what he does.
Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
It's tough to argue that either Lewis or Phoenix gave a better performance, though it could be said that Phoenix's was far more nuanced thanks to the subject matter. The simple fact is they both gave stellar performances and Phoenix should get it because Dainiel-Day Lewis always wins. Phoenix completely transformed himself for the roll and it is simply a stunning performance to watch even if people have soured a bit on the film for some reason.
More Chairs will be Thrown Through Windows If: *puts chair down* Huh, there's actually no reason to be upset by anything in this category. Any of these actors deserve to win. What should we do with this chair? Maybe we'll throw it for Javier Bardem's Best Supporting snub in Skyfall.
Best Supporting Actor
Who's Going to Win: Alan Arkin (Argo)
Argo is going to win every award but the one it wasn't nominated for (Best Director). It swept the Golden Globes, PGAs, SAGs, and WGAs, and everyone loves them some Alan Arkin. Part of me knows he's going to win for "Ar-go f**k yourself," alone. Besides, Alan Arkin is an award magnet.
Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Django Unchained was a great film, but Waltz's performance elevates it to classic status. He pretty much carries the film by himself. Jamie Foxx was okay, but his lack of lines subdued him in the face of Waltz's commanding presence. And that's what a supporting actor does. They support the main character, elevate the film, and make the entire thing watchable while still backing out of the way for the main actor to do his thing.
More Chairs will be Thrown Through Windows If: Robert De Niro wins. Silver Linings Playbook was good, but no one but the main two actors were Oscar quality. And he better not win based on reputation alone.
Best Supporting Actress
Who's Going to Win: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
As if the giant publicity push for her to win didn't seal the deal even before the movie came out Anne Hathaway then went ahead and basically reinvented one of the most cliche songs in musical history. She's been dominating awards in the category and there's no reason to think that the Academy is going to steer away from the norm here. Plus, she's got no competition here. Many of the other nominations seem like filler.
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
This is one of those rare moments where a brief performance dominates a film. Unlike Judi Dench winning for Shakespeare in Love for ten minutes of screen time, Anne Hathaway's short performance actually rocks the entire film.
More Chairs will be Thrown Through Windows If: Jacki Weaver wins. Did you even know she was in Silver Linings Playbook?
Best Animated Film
What's Going to Win: Brave
Pixar wins Academy Awards even when they're not deserving. Brave wasn't bad, but compared to other films in this category it wasn't that great. The problem is animated film always gets voted on reputation and Brave's closest competitors are a movie involving videogames (the scariest thing to an ancient academy member) and another involving zombies. Unless the voters were all thinking "Let's surprise everyone" this is a lock.
What Should Win: ParaNorman
Smart, fun, touching and gorgeously animated in a style that isn't CGI ParaNorman is the clear winner for anyone that was paying attention to animated movies this year. Let's just forget that it was painstakingly done by hand, and focus on the fact that it was also a really good movie. Sadly, the film didn't even get a Globe nomination so that's telling in how aware people in Hollywood are of it. One of those gems that won't win because people just assumed it shouldn't.
More Chairs will be Thrown Through Windows If: Frankenweenie wins. Seriously, every damn chair we can find through all of the windows. Not that it was bad, but that means an animated horror film could win and ParaNorman didn't.
Best Original Screenplay
What's Going to Win: Django Unchained
Controversy coupled with smarts? Nothing gets Oscar voters votes better than that combination. Of course if you're Quentin Tarantino and you make movies about movies with screenplays that drop references only film buffs would know it doesn't hurt either. Django isn't the definitive winner here, but it's the most likely with Zero Dark Thirty slipping in buzz and nothing else really pushing forward unless Amour pulls an upset.
What Should Win: Django Unchained
Complain about its racial issues and use of the n-word, it's still a wickedly smart screenplay full of fantastic lines and compelling characters. Beyond its western stylings and pop culture nods it's way smarter than you're giving it credit for. Tarantino also deserves another Golden man since he hasn't won since 2005.
More Chairs will be Thrown Through Windows If: Flight wins. Denzel Washington was amazing in Flight, but the screenplay was not. Great performances don't make great sceenplays.
Who's Going to Win: Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi)
Life of Pi is a stupidly pretty film and it is all about the visuals and people vote for cinematography that way. This kind of visually striking film is always what pulls academy awards voters in in this category and it shouldn't be any different this year. The film is stunningly shot, but the fact that its a ton of CGI leave something to be desired.
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins (Skyfall)
Roger Deakins has been nominated for an Academy Award 10 times and never won. That only should net him this statue. But the fact that Skyfall was easily one of the best shot movies of the year and had even non-film people talking about cinematography. Sadly because one of his best pieces of work is a Bond film and less visually striking than Life of Pi he probably won't win.
More Chairs will be Thrown Through Windows If: If Skyfall doesn't win. It will literally be an insult to one of cinemas greatest cinematographers and the worst snub of the night.
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