Every year we like to come in and completely and totally accurately predict the Oscar awards. We have, in fact, never been wrong (except when we have been). It’s a track record we’re looking forward to keeping up and we’re pretty confident we can do it again this year.
Of course the Oscars wouldn’t be complete without a few upsets, but sometimes there are things that occur that make us so incredibly mad that we endanger ourselves and others in our outrage. We’ve helpfully listed those things below along with our 100 percent (sometimes) correct predictions so you’ll know exactly when to duck the flying pieces of China.
What’s Going to Win: Boyhood
There’s been rumblings that Birdman could swoop in and win Best Picture, but it just isn’t going to happen. Boyhood had too much momentum coming into this thing and with Selma snubbed everywhere else there’s no real other contender in the category. Richard Linklater’s film has been building for this since it started shooting more than a decade ago. The guy deserves one.
What Should Win: Boyhood
It’s a triumph of film making. Even if you don’t think it was the best movie of the year (Selma) its achievement in shooting an actual child growing up deserves the Oscar. This is like giving The Return of the King the Oscar for the achievement of making the entire trilogy. It is a great movie, but it’s the fact that it even exists that wins it an Oscar.
Chairs Will Be Thrown Through Windows If: American Sniper wins. The film has been getting a ton of press in the past few months for its box office and subject matter. It’s also made by Clint Eastwood, a member of Hollywoods old guard, and the academy loves that. It could sneak in a win, but it sure doesn’t deserve it. It’s not a bad film, but it would win because of controversy, not because it is better than any of the other movies.
Who Will Win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
This might be the toughest to call as Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Linklater have been jostling for this guy and Birdman has been picking up steam. However, since we chose (correctly) for Boyhood to win Best Picture and these things usually go together we’re giving it to Linklater here.
Who Should Win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Again, Boyhood is an achievement in film making much like Gravity was last year and pushing the boundaries of how we make a film whether it be through technology, time or art needs to recognized. That’s what Linklater did here and he must be recognized for it.
More Chairs Will Be Thrown Through Windows If: Ava DuVernay doesn’t come up on stage and start a god damn revolution for minority and female directors. The lack of viewing of Selma thanks to poor promotion is an issue, but what really needs attention drawn to it is the fact that a black female directed film was routinely ignored.
Who Will Win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
With his SAG win Redmayne became the front runner despite strong opposition from Michael Keaton (Birdman). There’s plenty going against him though so this is easily the weakest of the predictions. Keaton is the sentimental favorite and folks thought he had it in the bag for a while so he definitely had the early lead. Redmayne may have also Norbitted the whole thing with his performance in Jupiter Ascending. Still, he didn’t go full retard and we all know that as long as you’re playing a disabled person you get Oscar votes.
Who Should Win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
It’s a tough call on this, but we can go with sentimentality too. Keaton playing a washed up super hero is just too perfect and he absolutely nails this. The single shot effect of the film makes his performance even more outstanding.
Large umbrellas will be hurled through stained glass if: Someone doesn’t mention David Oyelowo’s name repeatedly. Of all the snubs for Selma this is the most perplexing. Even if you think the film was standard, which an argument could be made for, Oyelowo’s performance was better than Cooper’s, Carell’s and Cumberbatche’s by a long shot.
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Much like last year this category isn’t even a competition. Moore has this locked up so tight you’d need the gang from Oceans 11 to pull of a heist to get it away from her. Deservedly too. Her performance is heartbreaking, profound, deep and flawless. I’m pretty sure the tissue industry saw a bump in sales this year specifically because of her acting in this film.
Who Should Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Did you read what we said above? What performance even came close? If Moore wasn’t around Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) might be there for how delightfully psychotic she was, but Moore is in for this without a doubt and deserves it.
Kitchen sinks will be chucked through computer monitors if: Reese Witherspoon wins for Wild. Did anyone else see this movie? She walked around a looked mopey for two hours. It wasn’t a bad performance, but what it’s doing here at the Academy Awards is a mystery.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
This one seems like a lock, though it’s hard to see why. Arquette was great in the film, and returning for the entire thing every year was impressive, but I don’t think she ran away with it. Her scene near the end when her child is leaving for college is stunning, but it doesn’t outclass other performance. Needless to say she’s the heavy favorite and will win.
Who Should Win: Emma Stone (Birdman)
The Flixist staff’s eternal crush on Emma Stone aside her performance in Birdman should be the kind of thing that just grabs Academy awards. Subtle and powerful at the same time she steals the show from a bunch of actors who are actively stealing the show at the exact same time. She won’t win because Arquette has it locked up for the reasons above, but she should.
Small priceless artifacts will be flung through Ming vases if: Meryl Streep wins. We get it. She’s great. She doesn’t need to win again and she doesn’t need to win for this role no matter how fun she was.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
If Julianne Moore is a lock for Best Actress I’m not even sure what to call J.K. Simmons. Fated? God will come down and hand it to him? They’ve already delivered the statue to his house? The guy is going to win.
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
When something is this locked in it’s usually for a good reason. That reason is because Simmons is insanely good in Whiplash. It’s one of those performances that sticks with you forever and defines an actor. In the future when people say his name you won’t think of Peter Parker’s newspaper editor anymore. You’ll think of this.
Small priceless artifacts will be flung through Ming vases if: The Judge gets mentioned. I know Duvall was nominated, but they shouldn’t even mention the film when they’re reading the nominations. The Judge was bad and Duvall wasn’t actually that great in it. The film shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oscars.
Best Original Screenplay
What Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Wes Anderson’s Grand Budapest has been getting this award throughout the season and its somewhat deserved. It’s most likely because the film won’t be winning any other awards, but the screenplay is actually his strongest yet. Combining a wistful love of the bast with hints at darkness the screenplay is incredibly nuanced, funny and entertaining. It is rightly nominated even if it doesn’t deserve to win.
What Should Win: Nightcrawler
What a horribly underrated film. Not only does it deserve to win because it should also be nominated in about every other category, but it is also one of the most original, twisted and fantastic screenplays of the year. Effortlessly diving into our obsession with violence in media and creating a character so perturbing that we can’t look away this is a fantastic screenplay and a truly original story.
Large rocks will be rolled down a hill and shatter an icey lake if: Foxcatcher wins? What? How is this movie here? It was two hours of nothing followed by a gunshot. We’re all for respecting restrained screenplays (The Artist was brilliant), but this wasn’t restrained it was just boring.
Best Adapted Screenplay
What Will Win: The Imitation Game
First off, it isn’t going to win anywhere else so if it is going to win it will be here. The competition in this one is really close, however. Even American Sniper could pull off an upset since it’s been doing so well in January. Still, Imitation Game was the front runner for the longest and it should have legs.
What Should Win: Whiplash
Yes, Whiplash is an adapted screenplay evidently. See, director Damien Chazelle’s made a short film to raise funding for the movie that was just a scene from the already written screenplay for Whiplash. However, the academy thinks this makes Whiplash adapted from that short film. It’s dumb.
Whatever category Whiplash is in it deserves to win. We get screenplays this rich and deep very rarely and it’s honest and bold look at power, inspiration and music deserve an award.
Sharks will be tornadoes through wine glasses set up like bowling pins if: Whiplash doesn’t suddenly switch to original opening up for the successful surprise win of Inherent Vice. Years from now people will look back after watching this movie enough times to get it and wonder what the hell we were thinking not giving it an award.
Best Animated Film
What Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
With The LEGO Movie left out because the academy is a bunch of people who don’t watch the movies they’re supposed to be nominating the only major US release that doesn’t involve superheroes (the academy hates them) is How to Train Your Dragon 2. This is a fantastic animated film, and may actually be better than LEGO so it’s possible it deserves this win, but it’s hard to go all in for it thanks to the other, smaller nominations.
What Should Win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Want to have your mind blown by an animated film. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya will do that and then hammer it home with a great story and visuals somehow even more stunning than other Studio Ghibili films. Not only is this a great film that should win, but the academy owes this to Ghibli since none of their groundbreaking films have ever won. There is honestly a shot of the movie pulling this off since Dragon 2 wasn’t a huge, huge hit and the academy doesn’t like sequels all that much.
Babies will be propelled though priceless art if: Big Hero 6 wins. We’re all fans of the film, but the fact that it’s on here over The LEGO Movie is just ridiculous. Get it together, Oscars.