Yeah, I said it. We’re clairvoyant up in this bitch, and we know the future! Our Oscar predictions are the best because we know we’re right, and if we turn out to be wrong than it’s the Academy that messed up, not us!
OK, so we’re just guessing like everybody else, but it’s damn fun to guess. Below you’ll be able to see who we think is going win in all the major categories and also who we think should win. Like most years there’s probably going to be a lot of difference between who will win and who should win. Thankfully, for the most part every nominee is entirely deserving of their nomination so even if our “should win” is different from our “going to win” they probably both deserve it.
You’ll notice that a few of the, shall we say, lesser categories don’t make an appearance below. That’s because they are lesser and our psychic abilities can’t see them through the haze of the future… or we just didn’t have anything to say about them.
In case you’ve forgotten, here’s the full rundown of nominees.
What’s Going to Win: The Artist
An artistic film that’s about Hollywood and stardom in black and white, and it’s silent? Yea, The Artist didn’t even to be seen by any voters to win with that kind of description. The Academy eats up movies like The Artist, and it’s most likely going to be walking away with the best picture nod this year. It’s already had quite the awards season and it doesn’t really look like anythings going to slow it down for the Oscars. It’s a fantastic film anyway, so a well deserved win if it takes it.
What Should Win: The Artist
Of the other nominees I don’t think a single on of them really does everything as well as The Artist does. While the likes of Hugo and Midnight in Paris definitely deserve strong consideration as best film of the year, they just aren’t as striking and memorable as the wonderfully put together, visually stunning The Artist. This is one of those rare cases where the hype is actually totally appropriate for the film.
We’re Going to Start Breaking Things if…: Tree of Life or The Help wins.
There’s a much greater chance of The Help winning than Tree of Life, but neither of these movies even deserves to be in this category in our opinion.
Who’s Going to Win: George Clooney, The Descendents
The Best Actor category is probably the tightest race of all. With Clooney, Jean Durjadin and Brad Pitt all conceivable victors. We think it’s going to Clooney this year though. His turn as a struggling father whose wife is dying is fantastic and a bit more easy to relate to than Durjadin’s silent protagonist. He’s already split the awards with Durjadin and it just feels like Clooney’s time this year.
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Not only should Oldman win for his subtle, immaculate and perfectly executed performance in Tinker Tailor Solider Spy but he should win for all the amazing roles he wasn’t nominated for in the past. Awards often are given out almost as achievements for a life time of work (think Scorsese on The Departed) and Oldman deserves it. Compared to every other nominated performance Oldman’s might seem to subdued, but it’s the lack of power that makes the performance so great. I’d argue that Oldman does even better without dialog in the first ten minutes of Tinker Tailor than Durjadin does for the entire run of The Artist, which is impressive because Durjadin is amazing in the artist.
We’re Going to Start Breaking Things if…: Clooney, Pitt and Durjadin touch each other at the same time.
That much handsome in contact at the exact same moment will probably destroy the world.
Best Supporting Actor
Who’s Going to Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
This one is probably in the bag as well. The other nominees hardly have as much cache as Plummer and he played an old gay man, with a British accent. Again, that’s the type of thing the Academy gobbles up. It’s well deserved too as Plummer took a role that could have been terribly flat and breathed life into it. Plus the rest of the nominees just don’t seem up to snuff. Nick Nolte and Jonah Hill were both good, but not stellar and Max Von Snydow just isn’t compelling enough.
Who Should Win: Plummer. He’s the best choice of all of them for the reasons outlined above.
We’re Going to Start Breaking Things if…: The Academy doesn’t scrap this list and just give the award to Albert Brooks for his role in Drive.
It’s unbelievable he wasn’t even nominated.
Who’s Going to Win: Viola Davis, The Help
While Meryl Streep has a strong shot at the award thanks to her amazing performance in the lackluster The Iron Lady it’s most likely going to be Davis for this one. Not only is The Help the social issue fodder that the Acadmey loves to vote for, but she’s been pumping out positive press for the somewhat controversial film really well now. Thanks to this she’s far more in the forefront of voters minds and should be able to pick up the award. It’s deserved too as her performance in the film is one of the true high points. The rest of the film had it’s issues, however.
Who Should Win: Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
There’s almost no chance of Williams taking home the Oscar, but does she ever deserve it. While the other actresses all gave strong performances Williams seemed to inhabit Monroe for this film. It’s quite possible one of the greatest bio performances ever and easily on of the strongest yet subtle roles of the year.
We’re Going to Start Breaking Things if…: Davis’ acceptance speech is nothing but a five minute diatribe defending The Help against its critics.
Best Supporting Actress
Who’s Going to Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
This is easily the one I disagree with the most, but Spencer has won every other award leading up to this so I doubt she’s going to miss this one. While she was definitely charming in The Help I found it hard to ever get attached to her character despite her clever pie trick. I’m really not sure where all the hype around the role came from, but as I said before, the Academy loves this type of role, especially in the supporting awards.
Who Should Win: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Was she the best performer? No. In a fair match should she win? No. But comedies never win jack at the Academy Awards and, damn it, I want one to.
We’re Going to Start Breaking Things if…: Spencer doesn’t deliver the best speech of the night.
She’s been knocking these things out of the park.
Best Animated Film
What’s Going to Win: Rango
Rango is clearly the front runner here, not just because it’s the best known of the films (other than maybe Kung Fu Panda 2), but also because it’s actually fantastic. A mind-tripping homage to the wild west that is smarter than it looks and incredibly well done. While the nomination of Chico & Rita could swing some votes that way since adult animated movies are so rare it’s most likely not going to take the award from Rango.
What Should Win: Rango
The film snob inside of me says that Chico & Rita should win, and in all honesty it’s a far more adventurous and intriguing film. However, Rango just hits all the right chords when it comes to movies and does it incredibly well. There aren’t many children’s movies that do what Rango did in terms of quality and art.
We’re Going to Start Breaking Things if…: Somehow, even though they don’t have a movie nominated, Pixar wins the award yet again.
Who’s Going to Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Picture and Best Director pretty much go hand-in-hand at the academy awards, and with no reason for that trend to change this year Hazanvicius is most likely going to take this home. The Artist is definitely a directorial triumph anyway. Getting emotion, compassion and most importantly empathy out of a modern audience with no dialog is nearly impossible, but Hazanvicius pulled it off. This is one of those categories where you wouldn’t be upset by any of nominees winning.
Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
While Hazanivicus may have made a silent film, Scorsese made a movie that will change how we look at film. Completely legitimizing 3D in one film doesn’t sound possible, especially after all the crap 3D out there, but Scorcese did it and did it well. It’s unlikely he’ll get another Oscar out of this (he only has one!), but if there was someone who deserved it it’s Martin Scorsese.
We’re Going to Start Breaking Things if…: In an homage to The Artist Billy Crystal comes out and pretends he can’t talk.
Thought we were going to say if Tarrence Malick wins for Tree of Life didn’t you? In all honesty, while most of us think the film is a pile of crap his direction of it is actually quite good.
Best Original Screenplay
Who’s Going to Win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
I don’t think any other film struck home for me more than Midnight in Paris and that’s mostly because of the fantastic screenplay by Woody Allen. Not only did it hit all the right chords about modern man and nostalgia, cut the way he wrote each famous literary character to speak exactly how they write is just ingenious. The screenplay is funny, witty, touching and meaningful almost all at the same time and is Allen’s best work since Annie Hall.
Who Should Win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
I’m not saying that Michel Hazanavicius screenplay for The Artist (yes, a silent film has a screenplay) isn’t anything short of stunning, but it’s not as wonderful as Allen’s. If you read through the screenplay for The Artist it’s good, but reading through the one for Midnight in Paris is breathtaking in how well it’s constructed. There’s just more there, and Allen readily deserves the win. As for the other contenders it’s not even close.
We’re Going to Start Breaking Things if…: If Bridesmaids wins.
Remember what I said about a comedy winning? Well, Midnight in Paris is comedy enough and Bridesmaids shouldn’t even be on this list.
Best Original Score
What’s Going to Win: The Artist
I don’t see any way around this. When the scores all you’ve got it’s going to get a lot of attention. Even with all that attention, though, The Artist‘s score stands strong. An old school score for a modern film that is both expressive and complimentary to the film itself. Had the score for this movie not worked nothing would have worked. There’s little doubt that this will take home the award.
What Should Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I’m saying this for the same reasons Gary Oldman should win Best Supporting. Tinker Tailor‘s score does so much with so little. It’s subdued and yet carries the film perfectly. You hardly notice it’s there, but once the movie is over you have a hard time forgetting it. While The Artist‘s score is indispensable, Tinker Tailor‘s is far more moving. There’s something to be said for a score that just works.